NBA picks, best bets: Expect Celtics to finish off banged-up Heat in Game 6, punch ticket into Finals

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Boston’s three wins in the Eastern Conference finals have come by 58 combined points. Their 13-point Game 5 win came despite a relatively lackluster offensive performance. It’s hard to win by double digits when you commit 15 turnovers and barely shoot 30 percent from behind the arc, but Boston’s defense and Miami’s injuries afford the Celtics more than enough leeway to do so. Right now, the Heat are simply too banged up to score against a defense this good. Get ready to watch the Celtics win the Eastern Conference on Friday. The pick: Celtics -8.5

The last two games have averaged less than 180 combined points per game. Boston can still score at a somewhat respectable rate, but where are Miami’s points supposed to come from? Jimmy Butler doesn’t have the burst to get by Boston’s big men, and as such, the Celtics are barely guarding him on the perimeter. Kyle Lowry has shot 5 of 23 in the series. Tyler Herro is fighting through a groin injury that typically requires weeks of rest. If you expect the Heat to score in this series, you’re essentially expecting bad shooters to make the shots Boston gives them. Otherwise? Expect another rock fight. The pick: Under 201

Robert Williams III returned to the Celtics for Game 3 of their first-round series against the Nets. He was limited in terms of minutes in that series, so he blocked just one shot in the two games he played against Brooklyn. Since then, he’s played in seven games. He’s blocked at least two shots in each of them. Keep riding that wave until it crashes. The pick: Williams over 1.5 blocks

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