NBA picks, best bets: Why Warriors can win again; one member of Bucks’ supporting cast due for scoring dip

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With the 2021-22 NBA regular season now in the books, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Plenty went wrong for the Celtics offensively in Game 1, but a big part of their struggles boiled down to lazy game planning. Milwaukee so aggressively gave up 3-pointers as part of a ruse to cover for their poor defenders. Those poor defenders didn’t exist in last year’s playoff rotation, when P.J. Tucker was in place and Milwaukee had the depth to pull Bobby Portis out of the rotation in the Brooklyn series. Boston got so enamored playing the numbers game that the team failed to attack weaker links like Portis and Grayson Allen, a mistake that should be rectified for Game 2. Allen’s projected point total is too low to bet against, but the same can’t be said of Portis. He’s been held below 14.5 points in four of his six playoff games so far, and if you assume Boston will make a point of attacking him to cut into his minutes, it feels safe to project that his scoring will go down. The pick: Portis under 14.5 points

Latest Odds:

Golden State Warriors

So many things went right for Memphis in Game 1 that probably aren’t going to sustain into Game 2. Draymond Green probably isn’t getting ejected again. Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. probably aren’t making 10 combined 3’s again, and based on his history, it seems unlikely that Jackson himself commits just three fouls again. Golden State just has so many ways of making up extra points in Game 2. In addition to this pick on Golden State in Game 2, I’ll put this out there: Caesars is offering +275 on a Warriors sweep. That’s by no means a lock, but if the Warriors take this game, the hardest part is done with their next two games at home. If that makes you feel a bit queasy, you can still get plus money by grabbing Warriors in five at +280 as well. The pick: Warriors -2

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