Penny Mordaunt to launch campaign for Tory leadership, promising to prioritise families

Good morning. Today MPs vote in the first round of the ballot for the Tory leadership. At least one candidate should definitely be eliminated (the one who comes last) and it is possible that two or three more might drop out to, because they fail to hit the 30-vote threshold for proceeding to the next round.

The contest is probably more open than any previous Tory leadership contest at this stage (on the morning of the first ballot) since 2005, but two assessments seem reasonably sound: 1) that Rishi Sunak is the frontrunner and the MP most likely to be on the final ballot; 2) that Liz Truss is probably the lead candidate for the right and the most plausible continuity Johnson figure (his most loyal allies are supporting her), but that her inclusion on the final ballot is less assured than Sunak’s.

Today’s results should give us some sense of how sound both these propostions are.

The candidate posing the biggest challenge to Sunak and Truss is probably Penny Mordaunt, the former defence secretary who is now an international trade minister. A Brexiter but with a background in Tory one-nation politics (she used to work for David Willetts), and a minister with cabinet experience but who was never part of the Johnson clique and who would be regarded by voters as a fresh start, Mordaunt would beat all other candidates in the final ballot for members, a survey yesterday suggested.

Part of the reason why Mordaunt does well in these surveys is because she is relatively unknown and has not taken strong positions on many policy issues, and so she has not alienated many potential supporters yet. (Admittedly, this did not work for Rehman Chishti.) But today Mordaunt will launch her campaign, and have to start saying what she stands for.

In an article for the Times’ Red Box, she says as prime minister she would prioritise help for families, putting a cabinet minister in charge of this portfolio. She says:

My government will revise the early years and childcare system. This will involve both listening to sector professionals who are already feeding into a live consultation on childcare, and appointing a cabinet-level minister with overall responsibility for family policy.

Families come in all shapes and sizes, and my own experience as a child carer for my mum when she was terminally ill has left me with a profound commitment to helping every family to live well.

I believe parents and carers are best placed to decide what’s right for their child. So I plan to move away from a policy of fixed entitlements to tax-free childcare, and instead create a new system of personalised budgets that will allow every child to access their entitlement to subsidised childcare at a time most suited to their family needs.

Family policy did not get a lot of attention during the Johnson years. That might have something to do with the fact that Johnson was never keen to talk about his own, and would not even say how many children there are in his extended family network.

Here is the agenda for the day.

9.30am: Mick Lynch, the RMT general secretary, gives evidence to the Commons transport committee about the rail strikes. Tim Shoveller, chief negotiator at Network Rail and Steve Montgomery, chair of the Rail Delivery Group, are also giving evidence.

10am: Priti Patel, the home secretary, gives evidence to the Commons home affairs committee.

10.30am: Penny Mordaunt launches her campaign for the Tory leadership.

12pm: Boris Johnson faces Keir Starmer at what is expected to be Johnson’s penultimate PMQs.

1.30pm: Voting starts in the first round of the Tory leadership contest. The ballot closes at 3.30pm, and the result will be announced soon afterwards.

2.30pm: Dominic Raab, the justice secretary and lord chancellor, gives evidence to the Lords constitution committee.

I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.

If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. I’m on @AndrewSparrow.

Alternatively, you can email me at andrew.sparrow@theguardian.com

Key events:

Mordaunt is asked what seems to be a question about trans, and how you define a woman. (It is not clear, because the questioner is not using a microphone, and so TV viewers cannot hear.) Mordaunt replies:

It was Margaret Thatcher who said every prime minister needs a Willie. A woman like me does not have one.

Mordaunt claims she is candidate ‘that Labour fear most’

Mordaunt says, if the Tories do not win the next election, the prospect of Brexit gains will be lost. She is the candidate most likely to win the election for the Tories, she says. She goes on:

I am the candidate that Labour fear the most.

(This is probably more than an idle boast. Some Labour figures say the same in private.)

Mordaunt plays down, but does not rule out, prospect of calling early general election

Q: People don’t know who you are. If you win, will you call an election to get a mandate?

Mordaunt says she stood on the same platform as other MPs. They have a mandate. The British people want them to get on and deliver it, she says.

Mordaunt is now taking questions.

In response to one about her family policy, she says she is proposing to spend the same amount of money – only distributed in a different way.

The i’s Paul Waugh says this is the best campaign launch speech he’s heard in this contest.

Engaging, fresh, full of policy and with a strong sense of her own character. This @PennyMordaunt launch is the most impressive Tory leadership launch speech so far.

— Paul Waugh (@paulwaugh) July 13, 2022

Mordaunt says the British public stepped forward during the pandemic.

They are capable and responsible people. They expect their government to be too.

Mordaunt says she is committed to the manifesto commitments on defence spending, and meeting the Nato defence pledge.

But she would also take some tasks away from the defence forces, she says. She says she wants to stand up a civil defence force to deal with civil defence matters.

Mordaunt is now talking about her family policy. (See 9.29am.)

She says she would also create tasforces to improve access to GPs and dentists, and to speed up housebuilding.

She says she wants to align government planning cycles with the business and charity sectors, which are already aligned.

Mordaunt says Whitehall needs change. Under her, it would happen quickly.

There would be a tighter cabinet, with ministers given clear timetables for delivery.

She says her main fiscal rule is that debt as a proportion of GDP should fall over time. She goes on:

My monetary policy will be on controlling inflation and our supply side reforms will yield a Brexit dividend on investment, infrastructure, incentives, and innovation.

She says she would have a “relentless focus on cost of living issues”.

On day one she would slash VAT on fuel at the pumps by half.

And she would raise income tax thresholds for basic and middle earners in line with inflation.

Mordaunt says recently the Tory party has lost its sense of self.

Comparing to to Glastonbury, she says it has been like listening to Paul McCartney play his new songs. What people want is the old stuff, she says: concepts like a small state, and personal responsibility.

She says the public is fed up with government not delivering.

Penny Mordaunt launches campaign for Tory leadership

Penny Mordaunt is holding her campaign launch.

She is introduced by Andrea Leadsom, the former cabinet minister, who describes her as totally honourable.

Mordaunt says she has been undertaking the equivalent of parliamentary speed dating as she has been meeting MPs.

MPs are people who want to serve, she says. They are people who want to take responsibility. She says she has asked herself why.

In her case, it goes back to being a nine-year-old, and watching the Falklands taskforce leave Portsmouth. She says she did not know much about it at the time, but she knew that her counry stood up to bullies. And that was important – important enough for some of her classmates’ fathers not to return home.

She says Britain does not need a new role in the world. “We just need to be ourselves.”

Sunak says his economic policy amounts to ‘common sense Thatcherism’

Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor who is seen as the frontrunner in the Tory leadership contest, has given an interview to the Daily Telegraph in which he has presented his economic approach as “common sense Thatcherism”. He told the paper:

We will cut taxes and we will do it responsibly. That’s my economic approach. I would describe it as common sense Thatcherism. I believe that’s what she would have done.

Sunak also suggested that his upbringing, as the son of a chemist, had some parallels with Thatcher’s. He explained:

If you read her speeches – and I’ve quoted her and Nigel Lawson [the former Tory chancellor] in other lectures I’ve given – her approach to these things was to make sure that as a nation you have to earn what you spend.

She talked about the person at home with their family budget. She talked about that really powerfully. That resonated with me, because that’s how I was brought up.

My mum was a small businesswoman, she was a chemist. I worked in my mum’s small chemist in Southampton. I did my mum’s books – that was part of my job. I also did payroll and accounts every week and every month.

Rishi Sunak at his campaign launch yesterday. Photograph: Carl Court/Getty Images

Zahawi said he would give Johnson cabinet job if he wants one

Nadhim Zahawi has also being doing a media round this morning. Here are the highlights.

Zahawi said he would be willing to offer Boris Johnson a cabinet job. Asked about this on LBC, he said:

Boris Johnson is a friend of mine of 30 years. If he wishes to serve in cabinet, I would certainly offer him a job.

There is precedent for a former prime minister returning to cabinet in a more junior role; Alec Douglas-Home was foreign secretary under Edward Heath after a brief spell as PM in the early 1960s. But it is generally assumed that Johnson would not want to return to cabinet, and that he would prefer to focus on books, giving speeches and earning lots of money.

Zahawi described Johnson as “probably the most consequential prime minister of his generation”. He told LBC:

[Johnson] has been probably the most consequential prime minister of his generation. If you go back to Margaret Thatcher, John Major, then Tony Blair, and of course, Gordon Brown, and then David Cameron and Theresa May and now Boris Johnson. He’s delivered Brexit.

Given how transformative Brexit has been, this is plausible. (Transformative is not the same as good.)

Zahawi said that he would only cut income tax when inflation was falling. He told the Today programme:

What I’m talking about is bringing forth income tax up to next year when I hope to see inflation abate, and of course interest rates return to levels lower than today.

This clarification aligns Zahawi’s tax position – which was widely condemned as unrealistic when first unveiled – most closely with Rishi Sunak’s. Zahawi also that said his plans for tax cuts were fully costed, and that he would release full details later.

He defended his decision to issue an open letter last Thursday morning saying Johnson should step down, only about 36 hours after agreeing to serve Johnson as chancellor. He said that by then the number of ministerial resignations had persuaded him that “we couldn’t realistically have a functioning government” and that his actions showed he was putting the country first.

Nothing is off the table. What I hope will happen is that the domestic legislation that [justice secretary] Dominic Raab is introducing will allow us to deliver the Rwanda policy. It is an important policy to deliver.

And on the BBC he said:

We have to review how the BBC is funded. We have to look at how it is sustainable in the future. We have to review everything. Nothing is off the table.

Nadhim Zahawi leaving the Millbank TV studios at Westminster this morning. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/Reuters

The economy defied expectations and grew by 0.5% growth in May, my colleague Julia Kollewe writes on the business live blog.

Welcoming the figures, Nadhim Zahawi, the new chancellor and Tory leadership candidate, said:

It’s always great to see the economy growing but I’m not complacent.

I know people are concerned, so we are continuing to support families and economic growth.

We’re working alongside the Bank of England to bear down on inflation and I am confident we can create a stronger economy for everyone across the UK.

Grant Shapps denies ‘dirty tricks’ by Rishi Sunak’s Tory leadership campaign

Grant Shapps, the transport secretary, has denied Rishi Sunak’s Conservative leadership campaign has engaged in “dirty tricks”, my colleague Amelia Hill reports.